Colonie, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

431
FXUS61 KALY 191409
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1009 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 10:10 AM EDT...Quick update was made to add light snow
showers into the forecast through the next couple hours across
the upper Hudson Valley, southern VT, and the Berkshires where
radar and ASOS obs show some light snow showers/flurries. Still
only expecting up to a light coating of snow in these areas, so
any impacts should be minimal. Otherwise, previous forecast
remains in good shape with more details in the previous
discussion below...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A parade of clipper systems bringing a mix of rain and snow
will increase the potential for isolated, slippery travel
conditions, particularly for some higher elevation areas, at
times over the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Whilst an anomalous, southern stream, upper-level anticyclone
builds and persists across the deep Southwest through the
weekend, a trough to quasi-zonal flow pattern prevails in the
northern stream. Ultimately, this will lead to multiple clipper
systems tracking through or near the region through the end of
the week with two primary opportunities for widespread
precipitation. The first of these comes Friday through Friday
night with the second following closely behind Sunday into
Monday. We will note, however, that prior to these systems,
there are minimal chances for scattered showers today in
response to a passing shortwave associated with a surface low
tracking through eastern Ontario into western Quebec. As this is
a rather diffuse shortwave with very limited moisture associated
with it, most shower activity will be confined to the higher
terrain regions of the Southern Adirondacks and Southern Greens
where upslope, southwesterly flow will enhance lift and help to
overcome low-level dry air. That said, a couple of stray showers
could drift farther south and east into the Eastern Catskills,
Upper-Hudson Valley, and Capital Region this afternoon. Here,
milder temperatures in comparison to the last couple of days
will force a precipitation type of rain while cooler, higher
elevations may see some snow or a rain/snow mix.

Much better forcing will be associated with the clipper system
anticipated for Friday. An already compact shortwave will eject
south and eastward out of southeast Ontario and into the Great
Lakes, deepening slightly as it reaches the international
border. This will translate to a deepening of the associated
surface cyclone in the Great Lakes. Strengthening warm air
advection will align well with a zone of frontogenesis at 850hPa
noted just ahead of and along the baroclinic front, further
enhancing forcing for ascent. These features will additionally
intersect a 50-55kt southwesterly jet at 850hPa that will
enhance moisture transport and aid in overcoming an initial
low-level dry layer. A stratiform precipitation shield will
subsequently spread into the region from northwest to southeast,
with rates becoming locally moderate at times due to the potent
forcing of the system as a whole. Precipitation looks to begin
primarily as snow in the Southern Adirondacks where temperatures
be below freezing at onset. However, as the shield drifts
farther south and east and persistent southwesterly flow drives
temperatures well into the 40s and 50s, rain will become the
dominating precipitation type. This will even become true for
higher elevation areas by Friday afternoon. There is still a
little uncertainty pertaining to how early precipitation begins
on Friday morning, but the morning commute to the north and west
of Albany could ultimately be a bit slick due to the initial
onset of snow.

Rain from Friday`s system will linger through Friday night,
transitioning back to snow or a rain/snow mix at higher
elevations once again as temperatures drop. But, by Saturday,
mainly dry conditions return. The next system comes late
Saturday night/early Sunday morning, once again bringing a mix
of rain and snow to the region. This time, a fairly broad area
of surface low pressure will track through the region,
accompanied by a cold front beneath quasi-zonal flow. A more
prolonged period of precipitation is anticipated with this
system, leading to a wet start to the next work week. There is a
bit more uncertainty with the precipitation types and their
locations resulting from this system, however, as it will be
highly dependent on the position of the primary surface low.
Latest guidance has trended farther north with the track of the
low which would place us on the warmer side of the system and
bring more rain. However, a more southerly track of the low
would favor a colder solution leading to more of a mix of rain
and snow especially for higher terrain areas. We will continue
to monitor trends closely.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z/Friday, mainly VFR conditions are expected through
at least sunset, despite persistent Cigs between 6000-8000 FT
AGL. A few snow flurries may occur at KGFL and KALB between
12Z-15Z/Thu. As an upper level disturbance and warm front pass
across the region, a few light snow showers may bring occasional
MVFR Vsbys/Cigs to KGFL, KALB and KPSF between 23Z/Thu and
04Z/Fri. Additional MVFR Cigs may occur at KPSF after 06Z/Fri
due to a light upslope west/northwest wind developing.

Light south to southeast winds 4-8 KT (except 8-12 KT with some
gusts of 15-20 KT at KALB) will become south to southwest at
5-10 KT by mid morning through late afternoon (with a few gusts
of 15-20 KT at KALB). Winds will decrease to 4-8 KT or less
after sunset, shifting into the southwest to west toward and
after 06Z/Fri.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12/35
AVIATION...24